What is it about?

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in four OECD countries.

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Why is it important?

We apply a symbolic regression via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main generated indicators, we estimate the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations.


We use a novel approach to derive quantitative estimates of GDP from survey data on the direction of change in order to analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations.

Oscar Claveria
AQR-IREA, Univeristy of Barcelona

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This page is a summary of: Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression, Applied Economics Letters, August 2016, Taylor & Francis, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419.
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