Rigid pavement performance models by means of Markov Chains with half-year step time

  • Heriberto Pérez-Acebo, Nicolae Mindra, Alexandru Railean, Eduardo Rojí
  • International Journal of Pavement Engineering, July 2017, Taylor & Francis
  • DOI: 10.1080/10298436.2017.1353390

Markov Chains for modelling the deterioration of rigid pavements, with a six-month step time

What is it about?

With IRI data from only 3 years, but collected twice a year, it was possible to develop a deterioration model for rigid pavement in Moldova by means of Markov Chains (or Transition Probability Matrices)

Why is it important?

The novelty of this work yields in the fact that, instead of establishing an one-year step time as usually in Transition Probability Matrices, due to the fact that data from only 3 years were available; a half-year step time was employed. This new approach, not commented on the literature, proposes that it is possible to consider shorter step times, if some assumptions are made.


Heriberto Pérez-Acebo

This kind of deterioration models can be applied in developing countries which do not have an extensive IRI (or other index) data over years. After collecting data for few years, 3 years in this case, it was possible to predict future deterioration in rigid pavements for the entire road network in Moldova.

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The following have contributed to this page: Heriberto Pérez-Acebo