What is it about?
The COVID-19 virus is highly infectious and has spread rapidly around the world, wave after wave. This study was conducted during the early stages of the pandemic. Scientists looked at how the total number of confirmed infections increased. They explored these data in countries in Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. When they plotted graphs from the data, they found that all countries had a similar curve. They also found that the patterns of the curves were similar across countries. On comparing the trends in infection rates with measures to curb infections, they found that “soft” quarantine measures are not efficient at “flattening the curve”. Rather, strict social distancing laws and proactive isolation of large numbers of infected people every day can help bring down the case load.
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Why is it important?
This study helps prepare effective strategies for the future. It reveals trends in infection rates, explores their relationship with measures taken to curb the spread of infection, and compares these trends among countries. The findings of this study show that strict government lockdowns can be successful globally, as they have been in Korea. They should continue to be applied until the pandemic ends. KEY TAKEAWAY: Understanding infection trends and identifying measures that work are key to applying the best strategies to bring the pandemic to an end as fast as possible.
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies, Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, April 2020, American Institute of Physics, DOI: 10.1063/5.0009454.
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Predicting the spread of COVID-19 infection accurately
For any model, the estimations are only as good as the data used. The cases reported during the early stages of the pandemic are critical. The disease spread should be modeled at different stages of the pandemic. Taking input variables specific to each region into account can also improve estimations.
Statistically Speaking: A model for predicting daily new Covid-19 cases and deaths in Turkey
The GLM approach involving autoregression with log link provides consistent and robust estimates of Covid-19 disease behaviour in Turkey and may be applied in other countries.
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