Assessing the uncertainty of hydrological modeling results of the SWAT model

What is it about?

Four uncertainty analysis techniques, including SUFI-2, GLUE, ParaSol, and PSO, were applied to assess the uncertainty of hydrological modeling results of the SWAT model in the upper Dong Nai River Basin

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Why is it important?

The uncertainty analysis is of major importance in the success of hydrological modeling. Generally, there are three principal sources contributing uncertainties in hydrological modeling: model inputs, model structures, and model parameters. Among these sources of uncertainty, the parameter uncertainty is inevitable but it is easy to control by using a suitable calibration method. The objective of this paper is to apply the four uncertainty analysis techniques (i.e., SUFI-2, GLUE, ParaSol, and PSO) to the SWAT hydrological model, to assess the impact of parameter uncertainties, and to investigate their performance and capability. A case study was carried out in the Upper Dong Nai River Basin in Vietnam. The results of this study provide a scientific reference based on uncertainty analysis to decision-makers in order to promote water resources planning efforts.