What is it about?
Baekdusan is a volcano on the border between North Korea and China with a history of eruptions that affected a broad region. North Korea has been doing nuclear tests at a distance of only about 100 km from Baekdusan. We ask in this paper, "If a more powerful explosion than the previous ones occurs, would the seismic waves generated by the explosion trigger an eruption?" We address this question using seismological methods and simple numerical simulations. We conclude that a trigerred eruption is unlikely with even a 100 times stronger explosion than the latest one but possible under right conditions.
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Why is it important?
The "Millenium eruption" of Baekdusan in A.D. 997 is said to be the second largest eruption in the last 2000 years. There might be stronger explosions at a similarly close location to the volcano in the future. Considering the scale of damage such a large eruption can inflict on the neighboring countries (e.g., China, North and South Korea, Japan), it is important to investigate the possibility of induced eruptions of Baekdusan.
Perspectives
This study focused on the maximum possible stress changes that can be induced by explosion-generated seismic waves that pass through a hypothetical magma chamber. It would be important to further articulate the conditions of magma, magma chamber and surrounding rocks under which the computed magnitude of stress change can actually trigger an eruption.
Dr Eunseo Choi
The University of Memphis
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Prediction of ground motion and dynamic stress change in Baekdusan (Changbaishan) volcano caused by a North Korean nuclear explosion, Scientific Reports, February 2016, Nature,
DOI: 10.1038/srep21477.
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