What is it about?
Analysis of satellite rainfall datasets show a notable decline in East African long rains since the 1980s is caused by a later start (onset) and earlier end (cessation) of this important wet season. However, since the late 2000s there has been some recovery of the long rains with the onset recovering to 1980s values, and some recovery in the cessation dates. The decline in the long rains is at odds with expected future climate change responses but this work discovered that the observed changes were linked with natural fluctuations in climate which helps to resolve this paradox.
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Why is it important?
For much of Eastern Africa the long rains are the major rainfall and primary agricultural season, so the decline in the long rains since 1985 has had major socio-economic consequences. This recent study helps to resolve an apparent discrepancy between changes observed since the 1980s and simulations of the future.
Perspectives
Trends in rainfall over Africa have serious consequences for the many people dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Therefore a decline in the societally important long rains season over East Africa since the 1980s is cause for concern, particularly since it casts questions over future projections made by complex computer simulations. However, our climate varies naturally from one year or one decade to the next as the ocean slowly sloshes back and forth. Careful analysis of rainfall data and wind patterns has shown that the observed changes are indeed dependent on these fluctuations. It was further discovered that the long rains had become shorter but not less intense and that this is expected to be temporary feature. However, long term changes in the climate of this region are under continued investigation as wind patterns and rainfall intensities respond to human caused climate change.
Professor Richard P Allan
University of Reading
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: ‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, September 2019, Springer Science + Business Media,
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7.
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