What is it about?
Climate is changing now, but might also have changed in the past. Analysing data from treerings, lake deposits or stalagmites can provide information about the variation of the climate in the past. However, such data comes with some uncertainties. In order to include this uncertainties in the analysis, we have developed a new tool. Using this new approach we are able to detect climate change (transitions) in the past even if there is a lot of uncertainty in the data.
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Why is it important?
Present climate change can be better understood when we know more about past climate changes and climate transitions. Considering the uncertainties is important in the discussion on climate change as it imporves the reliability and trust of such investigations. Our approach is one of the first that allows including the uncertainties directly into the time series analysis.
Perspectives
Coping with uncertainties will hopefully be once a standard in scientific data analysis (which is, at the moment, not the case). Our study will be an excellent starting point for this new kind of thinking and analysis.
Dr Norbert Marwan
PIK Potsdam
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Abrupt transitions in time series with uncertainties, Nature Communications, January 2018, Springer Science + Business Media,
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02456-6.
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