What is it about?

In this study, we looked at how climate change and water demand can affect the availability and security of water in Brazil in the future. We took an integrated approach, considering both the changes in climate patterns using various climate models and the projected water consumption based on data from the Brazilian National Water Agency. To analyze the impacts, we used a framework that considered a open water balance. We took into account the CO2 concentration effects on the water balance partitioning. We applied this framework to more than 700 catchments across Brazil, and we noted an average reduction of water security in 81% of the analyzed catchments by 2100.

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Why is it important?

Our study provides a systematic and comprehensive framework to understand the potential water scarcity in Brazil in the face of changing climate patterns and water usage. This information can be valuable for decision-makers when addressing water-related issues and making informed decisions. Furthermore, by comparing different approaches and scenarios, we aim to advance our understanding of hydrology and improve water resources management practices. Ultimately, our goal is to contribute to more sustainable and effective water management in Brazil.


I am delighted to have been part of this project led by André Ballarin under the supervision of Prof. Paulo Tarso. The project took place during a course taught by Prof. Paulo Tarso at the São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Brazil.

José Gescilam Sousa Mota Uchôa
Universidade de Sao Paulo Campus de Sao Carlos

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Brazilian Water Security Threatened by Climate Change and Human Behavior, Water Resources Research, July 2023, American Geophysical Union (AGU),
DOI: 10.1029/2023wr034914.
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