The weakening of the ITF in a warming climate can be explained by the AMOC changes

What is it about?

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is a key component of the global ocean circulation. By exchanging water between the low-latitude Indian and Pacific Oceans, the ITF has been suggested to play an important role in shaping global warming patterns in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Climate models consistently project the ITF strength to decline in the 21st century. Traditionally, changes in the strength of the ITF have been attributed to local processes, such as changes in precipitation and atmospheric winds. Here we suggest that remote processes can also have a significant impact on ITF variability. In particular, we show that the projected weakening in the ITF during the 21st century could be tied to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Through this transient version of the ocean's conveyor belt circulation, changes in the high-latitude North Atlantic (e.g., Arctic sea ice melt) can affect the climate in the low-latitude Indo-Pacific Ocean. An intriguing corollary is the potential to use the ITF to monitor or interpret long-term trends in the AMOC.

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