Ending China's one-child policy won't eliminate sex ratio skewing

What is it about?

Many people have argued that China's one-child policy is the driving force behind the country's increasingly skewed sex ratio. We argue that only some of the skewing is attributable to the policy. The rest of it is attributable to other factors that have increased incentives for son preference, namely the necessity of having sons for old age care, labor, property and inheritance, and ritual life. Elimination of the policy will probably help, but we predict these other drivers will continue to create incentives for families to have sons instead of daughters.

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Why is it important?

Our argument goes against the conventional wisdom about the causes of China's sex ratio imbalance. It is also timely because in fall 2015, the Chinese government did end the One-Child Policy, and many in the media predicted that this change would normalize the sex ratio. Based on our historical and cross-national comparisons, we predict it will not in the absence of improved old-age pensions and other inducements for families to have girls.