Nuclear Superiority and the Balance of Resolve: Explaining Nuclear Crisis Outcomes

What is it about?

Scholars have long debated whether nuclear superiority or the balance of resolve shapes the probability of victory in nuclear crises, but they have not clearly articulated a mechanism linking superiority to victory, nor have they systematically analyzed the entire universe of empirical cases. Beginning from a nuclear brinkmanship theory framework, I develop a new theory of nuclear crisis outcomes, which links nuclear superiority to victory in nuclear crises precisely through its effect on the balance of resolve.

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Why is it important?

This article presents a new theoretical explanation, and the first comprehensive empirical examination, of nuclear crisis outcomes.