U.S. Gun Laws and Violence in Mexico

What is it about?

This paper looks at how U.S. gun laws affect drug-related violence in Mexico. To answer this question, we exploit a unique natural experiment: the 2004 expiration of the U.S. Federal Assault Weapons Ban exerted a spillover on gun supply in Mexican municipios near Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico, but not near California, which retained a pre-existing state-level ban. We find that municipios located closer to the non-California border states experienced differential increases in violence.

Featured Image

Why is it important?

Our analysis holds the policy implication that stricter control of guns in the U.S. could help curb rising drug-related violence in Mexico, particularly over the long run. However, shutting off American weapons supply may need to be combined with increased enforcement measures to deliver more rapid reductions in homicide rates over the short run. These implications tie directly into the current contentious debate on weapons trafficking along the U.S.-Mexico border.