What is it about?
We have analysed publicly available seismicity data and production data to develop a simple model for analysis and also prediction of the number of earthquakes above a certain magnitude. We also show that the model predicts that the number of events per volume produced increases linearly with the cumulative volume produced. The goodness-of-fit plots show how well the model performs and how uncertian the model is in prediction. We have also addressed the possible impact of a time delay from production The estimated diffusion times were comparable to the inferred delay times of a few months. Our analysis also pointed out that due to depletion, decreasing hydraulic diffussivity times lead to increasing delay times. We have made a forecast of 16+/- 8 events for M>=1.5 for 2017. Note that 20 events were registered in 2017.
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Why is it important?
This research is very important for the prognosis for the safety of the Groningen people and for the policy makers with respect to the future production of the Groningen gas field, minimising the risk of earthquakes.
Perspectives
There have been several reports produced by people from several institutions on the seismic hazard and risk of the Groningen gasfield. Our simple empirical model provides a transparant and independent method to be able to predict the seismic hazard in the near future.
Marc Hettema
EBN bv
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: An empirical relationship for the seismic activity rate of the Groningen gas field, Netherlands Journal of Geosciences – Geologie en Mijnbouw, December 2017, Cambridge University Press,
DOI: 10.1017/njg.2017.18.
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