Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

  • Christopher J L Murray, Katrina F Ortblad, Caterina Guinovart, Stephen S Lim, Timothy M Wolock, D Allen Roberts, Emily A Dansereau, Nicholas Graetz, Ryan M Barber, Jonathan C Brown, Haidong Wang, Herbert C Duber, Mohsen Naghavi, Daniel Dicker, Lalit Dandona, Joshua A Salomon, Kyle R Heuton, Kyle Foreman, David E Phillips, Thomas D Fleming, Abraham D Flaxman, Bryan K Phillips, Elizabeth K Johnson, Megan S Coggeshall, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jerry P Abraham, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith J Abu-Raddad, Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki, Austine Olufemi Adeyemo, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José C Adsuar, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Dickens Akena, Mazin J Al Kahbouri, Deena Alasfoor, Mohammed I Albittar, Gabriel Alcalá-Cerra, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Francois Alla, Peter J Allen, Ubai Alsharif, Elena Alvarez, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Adansi A Amankwaa, Azmeraw T Amare, Hassan Amini, Walid Ammar, Benjamin O Anderson, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Ärnlöv, Valentina S Arsic Arsenijevic, Ali Artaman, Rana J Asghar, Reza Assadi, Lydia S Atkins, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, Sanjay Basu, Justin Beardsley, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle L Bell, Eduardo Bernabe, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Aref Bin Abdulhak, Agnes Binagwaho, Jed D Blore, Berrak Bora Basara, Dipan Bose, Michael Brainin, Nicholas Breitborde, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Vineet K Chadha, Jung-Chen Chang, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Ting-Wu Chuang, Mercedes Colomar, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Cyrus Cooper, Karen J Courville, Benjamin C Cowie, Michael H Criqui, Rakhi Dandona, Anand Dayama, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Borja Del Pozo-Cruz, Kebede Deribe, Don C Des Jarlais, Muluken Dessalegn, Samath D Dharmaratne, Uğur Dilmen, Eric L Ding, Tim R Driscoll, Adnan M Durrani, Richard G Ellenbogen, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Alireza Esteghamati, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Farshad Farzadfar, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Urbano Fra.Paleo, Lynne Gaffikin, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Johanna M Geleijnse, Bradford D Gessner, Katherine B Gibney, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Elizabeth L Glaser, Philimon Gona, Atsushi Goto, Hebe N Gouda, Harish Chander Gugnani, Rajeev Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Mouhanad Hammami, Graeme J Hankey, Hilda L Harb, Josep Maria Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Mohammad T Hedayati, Ileana B Heredia Pi, Hans W Hoek, John C Hornberger, H Dean Hosgood, Peter J Hotez, Damian G Hoy, John J Huang, Kim M Iburg, Bulat T Idrisov, Kaire Innos, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul N Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Jost B Jonas, Knud Juel, Haidong Kan, Ida Kankindi, Nadim E Karam, André Karch, Corine Kakizi Karema, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Dhruv S Kazi, Andrew H Kemp, Andre Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Saleh Khader, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Ejaz Ahmed Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Irma Khonelidze, Yohannes Kinfu, Jonas M Kinge, Luke Knibbs, Yoshihiro Kokubo, S Kosen, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Veena S Kulkarni, Chanda Kulkarni, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ravi B Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Gene F Kwan, Taavi Lai, Arjun Lakshmana Balaji, Hilton Lam, Qing Lan, Van C Lansingh, Heidi J Larson, Anders Larsson, Jong-Tae Lee, James Leigh, Mall Leinsalu, Ricky Leung, Yichong Li, Yongmei Li, Graça Maria Ferreira De Lima, Hsien-Ho Lin, Steven E Lipshultz, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Belinda K Lloyd, Paulo A Lotufo, Vasco Manuel Pedro Machado, Jennifer H Maclachlan, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, Marek Majdan, Christopher Chabila Mapoma, Wagner Marcenes, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Joseph R Masci, Mohammad Taufiq Mashal, Amanda J Mason-Jones, Bongani M Mayosi, Tasara T Mazorodze, Abigail Cecilia Mckay, Peter A Meaney, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Ziad A Memish, Walter Mendoza, Ted R Miller, Edward J Mills, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Ali H Mokdad, Glen Liddell Mola, Lorenzo Monasta, Marcella Montico, Ami R Moore, Rintaro Mori, Wilkister Nyaora Moturi, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Kinnari S Murthy, Aliya Naheed, Kovin S Naidoo, Luigi Naldi, Vinay Nangia, K M Venkat Narayan, Denis Nash, Chakib Nejjari, Robert G Nelson, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Charles R Newton, Marie Ng, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Sandra Nolte, Ole F Norheim, Vincent Nowaseb, Luke Nyakarahuka, In-Hwan Oh, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Bolajoko O Olusanya, Saad B Omer, John Nelson Opio, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Jeyaraj D Pandian, Christina Papachristou, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Scott B Patten, Vinod K Paul, Boris Igor Pavlin, Neil Pearce, David M Pereira, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, Max Petzold, Farshad Pourmalek, Dima Qato, Amado D Quezada, D Alex Quistberg, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Murugesan Raju, Saleem M Rana, Homie Razavi, Robert Quentin Reilly, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Jan Hendrik Richardus, Luca Ronfani, Nobhojit Roy, Nsanzimana Sabin, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Genesis May J Samonte, Monika Sawhney, Ione J C Schneider, David C Schwebel, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson E Servan-Mori, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Kenji Shibuya, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Ivy Shiue, Rupak Shivakoti, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Donald H Silberberg, Andrea P Silva, Edgar P Simard, Jasvinder A Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, Samir Soneji, Sergey S Soshnikov, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vasiliki Kalliopi Stathopoulou, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan L Sykes, Karen M Tabb, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Eric Yeboah Tenkorang, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Alan J Thomson, Andrew L Thorne-Lyman, Jeffrey A Towbin, Jefferson Traebert, Bach X Tran, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Miltiadis Tsilimbaris, Uche S Uchendu, Kingsley N Ukwaja, Selen Begüm Uzun, Andrew J Vallely, Tommi J Vasankari, N Venketasubramanian, Francesco S Violante, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Stephen Waller, Mitchell T Wallin, Linhong Wang, XiaoRong Wang, Yanping Wang, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Ronny Westerman, Richard A White, James D Wilkinson, Thomas Neil Williams, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes, John Q Wong, Gelin Xu, Yang C Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Gokalp Kadri Yentur, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, Mustafa Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Kim Yun Jin, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Yong Zhao, Yingfeng Zheng, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Xiao Nong Zou, Alan D Lopez, Theo Vos
  • The Lancet, September 2014, Elsevier
  • DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60844-8

What is it about?

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

Why is it important?

Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress sin

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60844-8

The following have contributed to this page: Dr Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Dr Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Mr Heresh Amini, Professor David M. Pereira, Dr Lorenzo Monasta, Dr Farshad Pourmalek, Dr marek majdan, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Dr Azmeraw Amare, Ione Schneider, and Professor Yousef S Khader