What is it about?
This paper looks at how CO₂ emissions from global transport have changed between 1850 and 2020. It examines what drove these changes, separating the effects of population, economic growth, demand for transport, and improvements in energy efficiency. Using a new long-term dataset, the study shows how rising transport activity has shaped emissions over time and how efficiency gains have influenced the trend.
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Why is it important?
The results show that efficiency improvements reduced emissions significantly, but this was more than offset by growth in transport demand. This means that improving technology alone is unlikely to be enough to reduce emissions. Understanding the balance between efficiency and demand helps policymakers design more realistic strategies for decarbonizing transport, including the scale and speed of electrification needed.
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This page is a summary of: Global transport emissions 1850–2020: Historical drivers and lessons for transport decarbonization, Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment, November 2025, Elsevier,
DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104998.
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