What is it about?
The probability of an accident can be estimated by simulation methods. If we talk about the consequences of the accident it is more difficult to estimate. So we can use the fuzzy inference method. With the likelihood and consequences of an accident, we can determine the risk. Through the use of fuzzy risk matrix estimate is more accurate which allows to compare different scenarios.
Featured Image
Why is it important?
The classic risk matrix gives discreet assessments, which are difficult to compare. This is due to the fact that we estimate the probability and effects of the accident very roughly. The use of fuzzy risk matrix allows for continuous (intermediate) evaluations and thus they are more accurate.
Perspectives
The paper presents a case study for air traffic. However, this approach can be applied in the risk analysis in any other area. It can be very useful in situations where we are considering introduction of mitigating activities. By using classical risk matrix we may find that in their effect, in any case, the risk is at "tolerable" level and we can not compare them. By using fuzzy risk matrix we will be able to distinguish between the risks for each of the planned activities.
Prof. Jacek Skorupski
Politechnika Warszawska
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The simulation-fuzzy method of assessing the risk of air traffic accidents using the fuzzy risk matrix, Safety Science, October 2016, Elsevier,
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2016.04.025.
You can read the full text:
Resources
The risk of an air accident as a result of a serious incident of the hybrid type
This paper presents the way we can assess the probability of an accident by simulation. The model in the form of Petri net was used.
FREE Open Access full-text
Read this paper for free on Warsaw University of Technology's Repository
Contributors
The following have contributed to this page
