How Climate and Land Use Changes Are Reshaping the Winter Homes of Migratory Birds

What is it about?

Many birds migrate between Europe and Africa every year, spending their winters in warm regions before returning north to breed. But climate change and human activities, like farming and deforestation, are altering the landscapes these birds rely on. Our study explores how these changes impact different groups of migratory birds, depending on the type of habitat they prefer. Using computer models and citizen science data, we predicted how suitable habitats for these birds might shift across Africa from 2040 to 2100. We found that birds living in open grasslands and farmlands might actually gain habitat, while those that depend on trees and shrubs could lose over half of their current wintering areas—especially in southern Africa. In contrast, some areas, like the Sahel, may become more suitable for many species due to increasing rainfall. Our study shows that the future of these birds depends not only on climate but also on human choices—how we use land and what actions we take to reduce climate change. Protecting a variety of habitats will be key to ensuring migratory birds have a place to rest and survive in the years to come.

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Why is it important?

Migratory birds are in decline, and understanding what drives these changes is crucial for their conservation. Our study is unique because it looks beyond just climate change—it also considers how human land use, such as farming and deforestation, will shape the future of bird habitats in Africa. While previous studies focused mainly on climate, our research combines both factors to create a more complete picture of the challenges these birds face. This is also a timely study. Climate change is happening now, and by the end of the century, some bird species could lose over half of their wintering grounds. At the same time, other areas, like the Sahel, may become more suitable for certain species. Knowing these trends in advance helps conservationists and policymakers take action before it’s too late. By using the latest climate projections and citizen science data, our study highlights not only the risks but also potential opportunities for conservation. The choices we make today—such as protecting key habitats and promoting sustainable land use—will determine whether these birds can continue their migrations for generations to come.