Trends in sensitivity analysis practice in the last decade

Federico Ferretti, Andrea Saltelli, Stefano Tarantola
  • The Science of The Total Environment, March 2016, Elsevier
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.133

What is it about?

Sensitivity analysis is critical to gauge the relevance and plausibility of mathematical or statistical models. Yet sensitivity analysis is either overlooked or performed unsatisfactorily. In practice most sensitivity analyses are made as to 'tickle' the potential uncertainty of the model prediction, instead of probing it thoroughly. Hence it would not off the mark to say that most published sensitivity analysis are false.

Why is it important?

A modelling work without a sensitivity analysis is like an orthopedic diagnosis without an X-ray.

Perspectives

Professor Andrea Saltelli
Universitetet i Bergen

We see sign of improvements in the take up of global sensitivity analysis, very unequal across different disciplined - the worse is economics in case the reader wonders! Journals could play a role to improve responsible use of quantitative information.

Read Publication

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.133

The following have contributed to this page: Professor Andrea Saltelli