What is it about?
This study examines how land use has changed over time in the Tocantins/Araguaia basin — one of Brazil's largest and most ecologically important river basins — and uses future scenario modeling to project where these trends are heading. Our analysis shows that current land use trajectories are unsustainable, with expanding agriculture and deforestation threatening the basin's water resources, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. By simulating different future scenarios, we highlight pathways that could steer the region toward more sustainable outcomes.
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Why is it important?
The Tocantins/Araguaia basin plays a critical role in Brazil's water security and biodiversity. This work is among the first to combine historical land use analysis with future scenario modeling for this basin, providing actionable insights for policymakers, land managers, and conservation practitioners seeking to prevent irreversible ecological damage before it is too late.
Perspectives
This research reflects our deep concern about the pace of land use change in one of South America's most biodiverse and hydrologically important regions. We hope the future scenarios presented here help stakeholders visualize the consequences of inaction and inspire more sustainable land management decisions across the basin.
PhD Edivando Vitor do Couto
Technische Universitat Munchen
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Unsustainable land use trajectories in the Tocantins/Araguaia basin: Insights from future scenario modeling, AMBIO, March 2025, Springer Science + Business Media,
DOI: 10.1007/s13280-025-02137-5.
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