Does Human Depopulation Reduce Resource Consumption? Evidence from Anthropocene Japan

What is it about?

Does a shrinking population automatically reduce pressure on the environment? We examined this question using Japan, whose population has been declining since 2008. We studied how changes in population and the economy have affected Japan’s use of farmland, food, water and energy since 1970. We also explored what might happen up to 2050. Japan’s population decline is already reducing some forms of resource consumption, especially household water and energy use. However, the overall picture is more complicated. Japan’s ageing and shrinking agricultural workforce has contributed to abandoned farmland and declining domestic food production. The country must therefore import more food, transferring some of its environmental impact to the countries that produce it. Rising consumption per person can also offset some of the savings created by having fewer people. Our research shows that population decline can bring an environmental “depopulation dividend” (see Matanle, 2017, Towards an Asia-Pacific ‘depopulation dividend’ in the 21st century, Asia Pacific Journal - Japan Focus), but it will not do so automatically or quickly enough to resolve today’s environmental problems. Governments and societies must actively use the opportunities created by population decline. This means reducing wasteful consumption, strengthening sustainable food production and moving away from economic systems that depend on continuous growth.

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Photo by Jezael Melgoza on Unsplash

Photo by Jezael Melgoza on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Population decline is spreading across the world, yet public debate usually treats it either as an economic crisis or as an environmental benefit. This research challenges both interpretations. The study is timely because Japan offers one of the world’s first opportunities to examine what actually happens to resource consumption when a large, affluent country begins sustained population decline. Rather than assuming that fewer people must mean less environmental damage, we use evidence covering population, economic activity, farmland, food, water and energy from 1970 onwards, alongside scenarios extending to 2050. What makes the research distinctive is its analysis of these systems together. It shows that population decline can reduce some forms of resource demand, especially water and energy consumption, while creating other problems. Farmland abandonment, an ageing agricultural workforce and declining domestic food production can increase reliance on imports. Japan may then appear more sustainable domestically while transferring some of its resource consumption and environmental damage overseas. For experts and policymakers, the research shows why demographic and environmental policies should not be developed separately. Governments must manage population decline in ways that strengthen food security, reduce excessive consumption and capture the potential environmental benefits. The central message of this research is quite straightforward: fewer people do not automatically produce a more sustainable society. Population decline creates an opportunity, not a solution. Whether it delivers a “depopulation dividend” depends on how societies organize their economies, consumption and use of resources. The research therefore shifts the debate from whether population decline is inherently good or bad to a more useful question: how can we manage it to produce better environmental and social outcomes?

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