What is it about?
The study highlights the contribution of changes in large-scale circulation to the strong summer warming rate observed over western Europe since the late 1970s. Such changes are partly driven by anthropogenic forcings (including emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols) but may also arise from internal climate variability in the North Atlantic SST .
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Why is it important?
The anthropogenic contribution to the recent warming will carry on while internal variability has a more chaotic and cyclic behaviour, which may alternatively strengthen and dampen the forced temperature response.
Perspectives
Ultimately, improved coupled climate models and formal detection-attribution studies could allow us to better quantify the fraction of the recent warming that was driven by individual anthropogenic forcings and, thus, to better constrain the future European warming depending on a selected emission scenario.
Hervé Douville
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe, Climate Dynamics, April 2025, Springer Science + Business Media,
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-025-07689-6.
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