A catastrophic decline in the popularity of artificial intelligence in the near future.

What is it about?

To look into the future, one must study history. The history of artificial intelligence dates back to the 13th century. The medieval Spanish scientist Raimund Llull created the first semblance of a human brain. He created a mechanical expert system capable of making medical diagnoses and providing legal advice. R. Lull's intellectual system was popular. People came from afar to look at the miracle of technology and get useful advice. However, after the death of Llull, there was practically no interest in artificial intelligence for the next seven centuries. This period is called the "First Winter of Artificial Intelligence". The next surge in the popularity of artificial intelligence came in the middle of the 20th century. It began with the invention of the mathematical neuron by W. McCulloch and W. Pittsem and the creation of a neural network by F. Rosenblatt capable of recognizing the letters of the Latin alphabet. The US government allocated large subsidies for the development of a new scientific direction. Particular hopes were pinned on the creation of a neural network recognition system "Friend-Foe", which is of great strategic importance. Young scientists have taken on an important project. But, despite solid financial investments, young scientists were unable to fulfill their promises. When it became clear that ambitious projects had reached a dead end, the public declared neural networks a "dead end scientific direction." The popularity of artificial intelligence has plummeted. The second "Winter of Artificial Intelligence" has come. By the end of the 1970s. projects related to the creation of expert systems began to gain momentum. However, here, too, "startups" overestimated their capabilities. The third wave of AI craze ended in the early nineties, when many companies failed to live up to high expectations and collapsed. The third "Winter of Artificial Intelligence" has come. We are seeing another surge in the popularity of artificial intelligence today. Over the past 15 - 20 years, one after another, there have been reports of the successful application of neural networks in a wide variety of areas of human activity. Artificial intelligence has become popular again. As in past centuries, breathtaking predictions are made. Like last time, large subsidies are being allocated. But, in reality, far from everything that the young scientists and journalists promised is obtained. Some companies are already starting to incur losses. Apparently, humanity is again going to step on the same rake. It must be understood that the laws of nature act inexorably. After summer, autumn comes, and after autumn, winter comes. Apparently, as in the old days, we will face disappointments and another "Winter of Artificial Intelligence".

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Photo by Catherine Zaidova on Unsplash

Photo by Catherine Zaidova on Unsplash

Why is it important?

We have shown that AI in its development is subject to the law of cyclicity, as well as any natural phenomenon. Winter gives way to spring and summer. Summer gives way to autumn and winter. The reason for the "spring" of AI are new ideas of brilliant scientists and a long hard work on their implementation. The reason for the onset of "autumn" and "winter" of AI is the failures of young inexperienced people who took up the implementation of ambitious AI projects. Excessive PR and ADV of AI, and reckless funding AI projects from business and States contribute to the onset of AI "winter". Currently, AI is at the peak of its popularity. But signs of "autumn" already are observed. The sooner we understand this and take action, the softer the winter will be and the easier it will be to endure.

Perspectives