What is it about?
Set-based design to date has been very qualitative in focus. Many practitioners say set-based design should not have a quantitative structure because math optimization only provides unattainable point solutions. We created a novel approach that quantifies set-value and not single product performance. We optimize that value to direct which set of products should be developed to ensure success.
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Why is it important?
This math framework is truly unique in that it provides a quantitative means to value and choose a product set where this choice previously could only be done in a qualitative, expert conference structure. The mechanics are novel as well. All design options are viewed and compared mathematically under uncertainty to create a Markov Decision Process tied to the product development program's timeline and epochal decision gates. The expected values are then recursively "backwards" solved to the start point of the program. Budgets restrict the set size and can also be analyzed to modify and create an optimal budget strategy. The solution can be resolved at any time when uncertainty resolves.
Perspectives
This framework adds key quantitative capability to program managers, design teams and engineering developers. It is a shared structure using common development language. It does not restrict expert, practitioner decision analysis, but rather enhances it. Although further applied research is needed, this framework is a beacon of hope for practitioners that see failed point designs and their processes making programs fail. It truly increases resiliency and is an extension of Toyota's legacy going forward into the future.
Dr. Stephen Horton Rapp
Wayne State University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Product development resilience through set-based design, Systems Engineering, June 2018, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1002/sys.21449.
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