Performance of statistical downscaling models, application for Swedish precipitation

What is it about?

This study deals with an analysis of the performance of a general circulation model (HadCM2) in reproducing the large-scale circulation mechanisms controlling the Swedish precipitation variability and in estimating regional climate changes due to increased CO2 concentration by using Canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Seasonal precipitation amounts at 33 stations in Sweden over the period 1899-1990 are used. Large-scale circulation is represented by sea level pressure (SLP) over the Atlantic-European region.

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Why is it important?

A concept about optimum statistical downscaling models for climate change purposes is proposed. The idea is related to the capability of the statistical downscaling model to reproduce low frequency variability rather than having the highest skill in terms of explained variance.

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