What is it about?
The paper establishes the Toll Index by using the German MAUT system for heavy trucks to build a leading economic indicator which comes as close as we can get to economic telemetry: it tells us what is being produced by measuring what is being transported. The two ought to be coincident due to "just in time delivery".
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Why is it important?
It is important because it gives us a way to know what is going on in the economy three to fours weeks ahead of the first estimates of German Industrial Production.
Perspectives
While ICT has been advancing rapidly economic measurement remains remarkably low tech. This paper shows what needs to be done for economics to reap the benefits of technological progress. It is one of, unfortunately, few examples of real time economic telemetry
Dr Nikolaos Askitas
Institute for the Study of Labor
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data, Journal of Forecasting, November 2011, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1002/for.1262.
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