Predicting the spread of forest regeneration in response to deer management

What is it about?

Increasing deer populations threaten the conservation of many different habitats, but predicting the outcomes of management to control their impacts is difficult because vegetation changes slowly and can follow different trajectories. We develop one of the first spatially-explicit models to predict the spread of forest regeneration in response to deer management. Our focus is on impacts of red deer and land use on upland birchwoods in Scotland, a habitat of high conservation value.

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Why is it important?

We show that mangers must reduce animal impacts rather than densities to increase woodland regeneration. But, other factors, such as ground cover, must also be favourable for tree establishment. Our research is also important because it develops a model to predict future changes to forests that is verified with field data. This shows that it can be reliably used in the real word. An extended benefit of this model is that it can be used to help maximize carbon capture in forests.