Bounding the Moment Deficit Rate on Crustal Faults using Geodetic Data: Methods

What is it about?

In this study, we take an in-depth look at a several methods for estimating the rate of accumulation of moment between earthquakes on large faults. These methods use geodetic data such as GNSS (GPS) or InSAR. Many studies solve for spatial patterns of the slip deficit rate on fault models, but the moment deficit rate (MDR) is more robust and gives a direct estimate of future earthquake potential when the fault transition depth and long-term slip rate are known. We propose two new methods to estimate this quantity including uncertainty that avoid the problems encountered by other methods.

Featured Image

Why is it important?

It is vital to accurately model earthquake potential on faults using all available information. Historical seismicity and paleoseismology are two important sources of information, and geodetic data such as GNSS (GPS) or InSAR is a third. Not only is the best estimate important, but the uncertainty in that estimate is also vital for a complete understanding of earthquake hazard. We provide new robust methods that work well to estimate the accumulating moment between earthquakes that does not depend on some of the assumptions traditionally required to solve the problem. These methods work well in all tested cases, while other methods can fail under predictable circumstances.