Atmospheric Rivers affecting Europe in future scenarios

What is it about?

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. In this paper we use simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) to analyze ARs reaching Europe and to quantify possible changes in western European prone coastal areas. The number of ARs is projected to double on average for the end of the 21st century (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to recent past (1980–2005).

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Why is it important?

We show that changes in ARs are associated with higher air temperatures together with higher precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. Our findings suggest an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia.