Evaluating uncertainty in convective cloud microphysics using statistical emulation

What is it about?

A novel tool to quantify uncertainty in cloud microphysics is the combination of the cloud model and a statistical emulator. We have identified the parameters and processes driving the uncertainty. The main sources of uncertainty are aerosol and interactions between graupel with drops or ice. Interactions contribute more than 50% to the uncertainty in ice crystal concentration. The results provide the information for effective model improvement.

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