What is it about?

The sustainability and transformation planning (STP) process conducted in the English NHS during 2016 was designed to reduce health care costs. Some CCGs suggested that large reductions in hospital bed numbers were possible. A new method for international bed comparison shows that such reductions were the output of flawed modelling rather than reality.

Featured Image

Why is it important?

Accurate modelling of health care demand is essential for correct planning of future services.


During a 30-year career I have observed that the NHS has consistently applies models which underestimate future demand. The 'political' climate in which the NHS is run is such that demand should always equal the financial allocation provided by parliament. Clearly this places undue pressure to derive figures which may be gross underestimates. This is exactly what happened in the STP process. In hindsight, some of the variation between CCGs was probably due to the inclusion of maternity into the measure of total occupied beds.

Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Were the hospital bed reductions proposed by English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in the sustainability and transformation plans (STPs) achievable? Insights from a new model to compare international bed numbers, The International Journal of Health Planning and Management, December 2020, Wiley, DOI: 10.1002/hpm.3094.
You can read the full text:




The following have contributed to this page