Projections of lightning emissions under climate change, and their role in atmospheric chemistry

What is it about?

Drawing results across a large number of atmospheric chemistry models and climate scenarios to summarise the state-of-the-art in modelling future lightning emissions of nitric oxide. Nitric oxide is an important chemical involved in the production of ozone in the troposphere. So then, the study looks at the role the lightning nitric oxide emissions play in producing ozone in a selection of atmospheric chemistry models.

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Why is it important?

Firstly the study identifies the consistency in responses to climate change when employing a very widely used lightning scheme, based on cloud-top height. However, it contrasts this with very different responses in two models that use different lightning schemes. Together these results identify important uncertainty in our understanding of how lightning will respond to climate change. The study also provides a multi-model estimate of the amount of tropospheric ozone produced by lightning. This estimate is useful in understanding the importance of lightning within atmospheric chemistry.