This study is based on 407 cases of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients, systematically evaluating the correlation between C-reactive protein-albumin-lymphocyte index (CALLY), C-reactive protein/lymphocyte ratio (CLR), and C-reactive protein/serum calcium ratio (CCR) with the severity of the disease and prognosis. The results show that CALLY is negatively correlated with disease severity and prognosis, while CLR and CCR are positively correlated; the constructed nomogram model with an AUC of 0.977, sensitivity of 96.3%, and specificity of 89.8% is significantly better than traditional single indicators. The study uses multivariate Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and decision curve validation to confirm its value in early and accurate prediction of poor prognosis.
This study breaks through the limitations of a single biomarker, for the first time integrating inflammation, immunity, and metabolism dimensions, proposing a rapid calculation, non-imaging hematology prediction system, providing a low-cost, high-efficiency risk stratification tool for grassroots hospitals; the constructed nomogram model has been internally validated (C-index=0.954) and confirmed by clinical decision analysis to have good practicality, which is expected to promote the transition of AP from empirical intervention to individualized dynamic management, and improve the early warning ability and treatment efficiency of severe cases.