Journal of Clinical Hepatology
Based on GBD 2021 data, this article systematically analyzes the changes in the disease burden of liver fibrosis/chronic liver disease, benign gallbladder/biliary tract diseases, and pancreatitis in the Chinese population aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021. The results show that in 2021, the number of new cases exceeded 10.44 million, a 3.8% increase from 1990; however, the number of patients, deaths, and DALYs decreased by 20.4%, 59.6%, and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved diagnosis and treatment. Among the three diseases, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of liver and biliary tract diseases significantly increased (EAPC=0.43 and 1.07), and the prevalence rate (ASPR) of biliary tract diseases also continued to rise; while mortality decreased overall. Predictions show that the incidence of biliary tract diseases will decline from 2022 to 2030, while pancreatitis may rise.
This study focuses for the first time on the youth group (15-39 years old) and reveals the new epidemic characteristics of benign liver, gallbladder, and pancreatic diseases, "high incidence, slow progression, and hidden deterioration," breaking the misconception that these diseases are exclusive to middle-aged and elderly people. Its value lies in: first, providing evidence-based support for early screening and prevention in the context of the young onset of metabolic diseases; second, promoting the inclusion of liver, gallbladder, and pancreatic health in the chronic disease prevention and control system for adolescents; third, suggesting the need to optimize primary screening strategies and health education content, especially for diseases strongly related to lifestyle, such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cholelithiasis. The research responds to the GBD global framework and fills the gap in the macro burden analysis of liver, gallbladder, and pancreatic diseases in Chinese youth. It has important reference value for formulating tiered diagnosis and treatment policies and public health resource allocation.
Objective: To investigate the changing trends of the incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year…
