This study is based on a prospective cohort of 33,987 young and middle-aged adults aged 18 to 60, exploring the predictive value of cumulative plasma atherogenic index (cumAIP) for the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). By calculating the weighted average AIP value from multiple follow-ups (i.e., cumAIP), it more truly reflects the long-term exposure level of lipid metabolism abnormalities. The study found that the higher the cumAIP, the greater the risk of NAFLD, showing a clear dose-response relationship, with the Q4 group's risk increasing by 79% compared to the Q1 group. The innovation lies in the first-time proposal and verification of cumAIP being superior to single AIP, which can more accurately predict the risk of NAFLD, and the introduction of time-accumulated exposure models and competing risk analysis, enhancing the robustness of the results.
This study provides an important biomarker and quantitative tool for the primary prevention of NAFLD in young and middle-aged adults. cumAIP not only reflects the long-term cumulative effects of lipid disorder but can also be used for early identification of high-risk individuals, facilitating precise intervention. Given the close relationship between NAFLD and metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease, this indicator is expected to be included in routine physical examinations, promoting a shift from "passive treatment" to "active prevention." As the first AIP cohort study focusing on young and middle-aged adults, with a large sample size and long follow-up time, the conclusions have strong stability and important clinical guiding value. Although there are certain limitations in population representativeness, it provides high-quality evidence support for the formulation of subsequent public health strategies.