Journal of Clinical Hepatology
Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease, or MAFLD, is closely related to insulin resistance, abdominal obesity and abnormal blood lipids. This study examined whether combining metabolic blood markers with body measurements could improve risk assessment.
Researchers retrospectively analysed 2,824 adults who underwent health examinations and abdominal ultrasound. The participants were randomly divided into a training group of 1,976 and a validation group of 848. The researchers evaluated indicators including waist circumference, the triglyceride-glucose index, the triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio and A Body Shape Index, which describes body shape independently of overall size.
Their best-performing model combined sex, elevated alanine aminotransferase, HDL cholesterol, triglyceride-glucose index, triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio, waist circumference and A Body Shape Index. It achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.917 in the training group and 0.911 in the validation group.
Several metabolic and body-shape measurements were also associated with intermediate- or high-risk MAFLD. However, the study did not establish whether these measurements could predict future progression of liver fibrosis.
The model was presented as a nomogram, allowing an individual’s measurements to be converted into an estimated probability of MAFLD.
MAFLD is often asymptomatic, while universal imaging is not always practical. A risk tool based on routine blood tests and simple body measurements could help determine who should receive further liver assessment.
The strong performance of the combined model also demonstrates that waist size and body shape provide information beyond conventional metabolic tests alone.
However, this was a retrospective study from one centre, and the validation participants came from the same population as the training group. Ultrasound is operator-dependent and cannot precisely quantify liver fat. Medication use, smoking and alcohol information may also have been incomplete. Independent multicentre validation is required.
Objective: To develop a novel clinical predictive model for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) based on...
