All Stories

  1. Employment reconciliation and nowcasting

    Article • Journal of Applied Econometrics, July 2023, Wiley

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  2. Unlocked Potential: Work-from-Home Job Postings in 20 OECD Countries

    Article • AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023, American Economic Association

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  3. Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, April 2022, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  4. Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?*

    Article • Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, December 2020, Wiley

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  5. A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, October 2020, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  6. What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?

    Article • Applied Economics Letters, February 2020, Taylor & Francis

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  7. Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach

    Article • Economics Letters, August 2019, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  8. Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, July 2019, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  9. A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average

    Article • Empirical Economics, September 2016, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  10. TESTING STATIONARITY WITH UNOBSERVED-COMPONENTS MODELS

    Article • Macroeconomic Dynamics, March 2016, Cambridge University Press

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  11. Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, February 2016, Wiley

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  12. What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?

    Article • Journal of Macroeconomics, September 2015, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  13. Okun’s Law in real time

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, January 2015, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  14. Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, January 2015, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  15. Honoring Herman: A special section for Stekler

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, January 2015, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  16. The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession

    Article • Challenge, November 2014, Taylor & Francis

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  17. HOW WELL DOES “CORE” INFLATION CAPTURE PERMANENT PRICE CHANGES?

    Article • Macroeconomic Dynamics, July 2014, Cambridge University Press

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  18. Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2014, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  19. Forecasting data vintages

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, October 2013, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  20. Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, October 2013, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  21. How Well Does 'Core' Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2013, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  22. How Well Does 'Core' Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2013, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  23. Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, April 2012, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  24. Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2012, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  25. OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE G-7: AN UNOBSERVED COMPONENTS APPROACH

    Article • Macroeconomic Dynamics, December 2011, Cambridge University Press

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  26. Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap

    Article • IMF Working Paper, January 2011, International Monetary Fund

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  27. Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?

    Article • Economics Letters, July 2010, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  28. Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions

    Article • Applied Economics, July 2010, Taylor & Francis

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  29. Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2010, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  30. Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2010, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  31. Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, October 2009, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  32. The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate

    Article • Journal of money credit and banking, March 2009, Wiley

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  33. Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations

    Article • Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, January 2009, De Gruyter

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  34. Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between the US and China

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2009, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  35. How Well Does 'Core' CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2009, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  36. Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2008, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  37. The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2007, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  38. Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage

    Article • Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy, August 2006, De Gruyter

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  39. Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2006, Elsevier

    Professor Tara M Sinclair

  40. Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage

    Article • December 2005, National Bureau of Economic Research

    Professor Tara M Sinclair