All Stories

  1. Weak Exogeneity, Driving Trends and Non‐Causality Is Dynamic Adjustment Informative About Causality?

    Article • Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, July 2026, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  2. Do professionals’ inflation forecasts incorporate the beliefs of others? A functional data approach

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, June 2026, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  3. Real-time Tests of behavioural Biases in Professional Inflation Forecasts

    Article • January 2026, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  4. Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited

    Article • Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, August 2025, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  5. Introduction to the Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting

    Article • November 2024, Edward Elgar Publishing

    Professor Michael P Clements

  6. Real-time data and forecasting

    Article • November 2024, Edward Elgar Publishing

    Professor Michael P Clements

  7. Survey expectations and adjustments for multiple testing

    Article • Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, August 2024, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  8. Survey respondents' inflation forecasts and the COVID period

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, June 2024, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  9. Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, December 2023, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  10. Does the age of compensation committee members matter for CEO compensation?

    Article • Corporate Governance An International Review, October 2023, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  11. How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, February 2023, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  12. Density forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models under macroeconomic data uncertainty

    Article • Journal of Applied Econometrics, December 2022, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  13. Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, November 2022, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  14. Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP

    Article • Journal of Applied Econometrics, November 2021, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  15. Measuring the Effects of Expectations Shocks

    Article • Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, January 2021, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  16. Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?

    Article • Econometrics, May 2020, MDPI AG

    Professor Michael P Clements

  17. Rounding Behaviour of Professional Macro-Forecasters

    Article • January 2020, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  18. Independent directors, information costs and foreign ownership in Chinese companies

    Article • Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money, March 2018, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  19. Did Quantitative Easing Only Inflate Stock Prices? Macroeconomic Evidence from the US and UK

    Article • January 2016, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  20. Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences?

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, August 2015, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  21. Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?

    Article • Journal of money credit and banking, March 2015, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  22. Robust approaches to forecasting

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, January 2015, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements, Sir David F Hendry

  23. Assessing Macro Uncertainty in Real-Time When Data are Subject to Revision

    Article • January 2015, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  24. Forecasters' Disagreement About How the Economy Operates, and the Role of Long-Run Relationships

    Article • January 2015, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  25. US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968-2010

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, December 2013, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  26. Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, October 2013, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  27. Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, April 2012, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  28. Forecasting U.S. Output Growth with Non-Linear Models in the Presence of Data Uncertainty

    Article • Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, January 2012, De Gruyter

    Professor Michael P Clements

  29. The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

    Article • July 2011, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  30. Introduction

    Article • July 2011

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  31. Forecasting from misspecified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts

    Article • July 2011

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  32. Combining probability forecasts

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, April 2011, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  33. First announcements and real economic activity

    Article • European Economic Review, August 2010, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  34. Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents’ forecasts

    Article • European Economic Review, May 2010, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  35. Comments on “Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs”

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, October 2009, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  36. Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts

    Article • Journal of Applied Econometrics, July 2009, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  37. Internal Consistency of Survey Respondents' Forecasts: Evidence Based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters*

    Article • April 2009, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Michael P Clements

  38. Economic Forecasting in a Changing World

    Article • Capitalism and Society, October 2008, De Gruyter

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  39. Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, January 2008, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  40. Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series

    Article • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, April 2007, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  41. FORECASTING QUARTERLY AGGREGATE CRIME SERIES*

    Article • Manchester School, December 2005, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  42. Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables

    Article • January 2005, Nature

    Professor Michael P Clements

  43. Pooling of forecasts

    Article • Econometrics Journal, June 2004, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  44. A Companion to Economic Forecasting

    Article • January 2004, Wiley

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  45. Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research

    Article • Economic Modelling, March 2003, Elsevier

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  46. On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, January 2003, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  47. Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data

    Article • Journal of Applied Econometrics, January 2003, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  48. Some possible directions for future research

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, January 2003, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  49. Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research

    Article • January 2003, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  50. Modelling methodology and forecast failure

    Article • Econometrics Journal, December 2002, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  51. Comments on ‘The state of macroeconomic forecasting’

    Article • Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2002, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  52. Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, July 2002, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  53. Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?

    Article • Empirical Economics, March 2002, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Michael P Clements

  54. Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?

    Article • January 2002, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Michael P Clements

  55. Forecasting in Econometrics: editors’ introduction

    Article • Econometrics Journal, June 2001, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  56. Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, April 2001, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  57. On winning forecasting competitions in economics

    Article • Spanish Economic Review, July 1999, Springer Science + Business Media

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  58. An introduction to forecasting

    Article • October 1998, Cambridge University Press

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  59. Evaluating forecast accuracy

    Article • October 1998, Cambridge University Press

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  60. Forecasting with large-scale macroeconometric models

    Article • October 1998, Cambridge University Press

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  61. A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts

    Article • October 1998, Cambridge University Press

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  62. Forecasting economic processes

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, March 1998, Elsevier

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  63. Forecasting economic time series

    Article • January 1998, Cambridge University Press

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  64. The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models

    Article • International Journal of Forecasting, December 1997, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  65. Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-event Forecasts

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, July 1997, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  66. Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed‐event Forecasts

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, July 1997, Wiley

    Professor Michael P Clements

  67. MULTI‐STEP ESTIMATION FOR FORECASTING

    Article • Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, November 1996, Wiley

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  68. Forecasting in macro-economics Michael P. Clements

    Article • January 1996, Springer Science + Business Media

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  69. Macro-Economic Forecasting and Modelling

    Article • The Economic Journal, July 1995, JSTOR

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  70. Forecasting in cointegrated systems

    Article • Journal of Applied Econometrics, April 1995, Wiley

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  71. Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting

    Article • The Economic Journal, March 1995, JSTOR

    Professor Michael P Clements

  72. A reply to armstrong and fildes

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, January 1995, Wiley

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  73. On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors: A reply

    Article • Journal of Forecasting, December 1993, Wiley

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  74. Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series

    Article • European Economic Review, May 1991, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  75. THE WORLD AND UK ECONOMY: ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS

    Article • Oxford Review of Economic Policy, January 1987, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Michael P Clements

  76. THE UK ECONOMY: ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS

    Article • Oxford Review of Economic Policy, January 1987, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Michael P Clements

  77. THE WORLD ECONOMY: ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS

    Article • Oxford Review of Economic Policy, January 1986, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Michael P Clements

  78. THE UK ECONOMY: ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS

    Article • Oxford Review of Economic Policy, January 1986, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Michael P Clements

  79. THE UK ECONOMY: ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS

    Article • Oxford Review of Economic Policy, January 1986, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Michael P Clements

  80. Forecasting in cointegrated systems

    Article • Cambridge University Press

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  81. Forecasting using leading indicators

    Article • Cambridge University Press

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  82. An Overview of Economic Forecasting

    Article • Wiley

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  83. Explaining Forecast Failure in Macroeconomics

    Article • Wiley

    Sir David F Hendry, Professor Michael P Clements

  84. Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate Their Differences?

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, Elsevier

    Professor Michael P Clements

  85. Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, Social Science Electronic Publishing

    Professor Michael P Clements

  86. Real-Time Factor Model Forecasting and the Effects of Instability

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, Social Science Electronic Publishing

    Professor Michael P Clements

  87. Long-Run Restrictions and Survey Forecasts of Output, Consumption and Investment

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, Social Science Electronic Publishing

    Professor Michael P Clements

  88. Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth and Inflation

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, Social Science Electronic Publishing

    Professor Michael P Clements

  89. Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets

    Article • SSRN Electronic Journal, Social Science Electronic Publishing

    Professor Michael P Clements